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Why Is the Japanese Yen Weak? And Why the U.S. Cares

A weak Japanese yen can make a trip to Japan feel like it came with a discount code. A ¥10,000 dinner costs about $91 at ¥110 per dollar, or $62.50 at ¥160 per dollar. Same sushi. Maybe one more plate. So why is the Japanese yen weak? One major reason is the gap between U.S. and Japanese interest rates. When U.S. investments pay more, investors have a reason to sell yen and buy dollars. For travelers, that can mean cheaper sushi. For Japanese households, a weaker yen can make imported fuel and food more expensive. And on July 31, 2026, U.S. Eastern time, Japan bought yen in coordination with the U.S. Treasury. Why would Washington get involved in the price of someone else’s currency? The answer starts with interest rates and ends up in the U.S. bond market. Japan’s Ministry of Finance Why higher U.S. interest rates can weaken the yen An interest rate is the price of borrowing money. If you lend a friend $1,000 and they pay you back $1,010 a year later, you’ve earn...
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円安はなぜ続く? 企業は好調なのに、なぜ暮らしは苦しくなるのか

 「円安は日本経済にとって追い風です」 そう聞いた日にスーパーへ行く。いつものオリーブオイルを手に取って、値札を見て棚に戻す。家に帰って電気代の請求書を開く。それから、給与明細を見る。 円安がいいって、いったい誰にとっていいんだろう。 ドルで稼ぐ企業なら、同じ100万ドルの売上でも、円に換算したときの金額は増える。一方、円で給料をもらって暮らしていると、同じ給料で買えるものが減ることがある。原油や食材を海外から仕入れるとき、円が安くなれば、同じものを買うのにより多くの円が必要になるからだ。 もちろん、スーパーの値上げがすべて為替のせいというわけではない。それでも、 決算書では「追い風」と呼ばれる円安が、レシートでは値上げになって返ってくることがある。 では、なぜここまで円安が進んだのか。大きな理由の一つが、 日本と米国の金利差 だ。米国が物価上昇を抑えるために急ピッチで利上げを進める一方、日本は低金利を長く続けた。ドルで運用する魅力が増し、円を売ってドルを買う動きが広がった。 国際決済銀行(BIS)の日米金利差に関する分析 ここまで聞くと、日銀にひと言言いたくなる。 「じゃあ、日本も金利を上げればいいんじゃないの?」 ところが、金利を上げると今度は住宅ローンの返済が気になる。国が借金に払う利息も、じわじわ増えていく。そんななか、2026年7月31日には米国も日本と一緒に円を買った。 スーパーの値札から始まった話に、どうして米財務省まで出てくるのか。 財務省の協調介入に関する発表 円安が進む理由は? お金は金利の高いほうへ動く 友人に10万円を貸して、1年後に10万1,000円が返ってくるとする。上乗せされた1,000円が利息で、金利は年1%。借りる側は金利が低いほうが助かるし、貸す側は高いほうがうれしい。 日本では長い間、景気が弱く、物価もなかなか上がらなかった。お金を安く借りられれば、企業が設備投資をし、家計もお金を使いやすくなる。そう考えて、低金利を続けてきた。アベノミクスが始まった頃の2013年には、日銀が国債を大規模に買い入れ、金融緩和を強めた。 日銀による2013年の金融緩和の解説 お金を借りる人にはありがたい環境だった。預金通帳を開いた人は、こう思ったかもしれない。 「これ、利息ついた? 桁、変わってなくない?」 一方、米国は物価の急上昇を受け...

Trading)VPA, Trading Volume: The Only Window for Retail Investors to Peek Inside the Market (Chapter 2)

  Volume is the only tool retail traders have to peek inside the market. While price alone doesn’t reveal the true strength of a move, volume helps assess whether a price increase or decrease is sustainable. By analyzing volume, traders can better understand market trends and spot when smart money is entering or leaving, providing a crucial edge in decision-making. Why Volume? The chapter opens with a quote from Warren Buffett: “The key is having more information than the other guy – then analyzing it right and using it rationally.” To illustrate how markets work, the author shares a fictional story: The Parable of Uncle Joe . Uncle Joe’s Story Uncle Joe runs a government-licensed company that is the only supplier of a product called widgets. Though the product has real value and doesn't degrade, business is boring—sales are slow, and profits are small. To boost sales, Uncle Joe spreads a subtle rumor through a gossiping neighbor: widgets might soon be in short supply. As expected...

Trading) VPA, Why volume is important? (chapter 1)

  In VPA (Volume Price Analysis), it says that by analyzing price and volume, you can accurately understand the market’s direction. If price goes up with an increase in volume, it’s a strong signal that buying pressure is high. On the other hand, if volume decreases while price rises, it could mean someone is trying to dump their positions at the top. The classic principles from Jesse Livermore and Wyckoff are still valid today, and the author, Anna Coulling , shows that markets are ultimately driven by human emotions. 🧠 1. There's Nothing New — Human Psychology Remains the Same “There is nothing new under the sun” — Ecclesiastes 1:9 The market seems to change, but the fundamentals stay the same . People’s emotions like greed, fear, hope, and regret have always created repeating patterns in the market. No matter how many new technologies, like AI or algorithms, come out, the driving force behind the market is human emotions . 📖 2. Reminiscences of a Stock Ope...

Crypto Journalist You Should Follow

  These people help to improve insight into the crypto market. https://twitter.com/Kr00ney (CNBC) https://twitter.com/itstaylorlocke (Fortune) https://twitter.com/Ryan_Browne_ (CNBC) https://twitter.com/AnitaRamaswamy (Tech Crunch) https://twitter.com/benpimentel (Protocol) https://twitter.com/MsHannahMurphy (Financial Times) https://twitter.com/hgmiller29 (Bloomberg) https://twitter.com/JeffKauflin (Forbes) 💎  Tips for earning $15000 in May alone through arbitrage  💎   Aoa's advice on how to turn $5,000 into $100,000,000 💎  Typical Manipulation Scenario of Smart Money in Crypto  

A very easy explanation for quantitative easing and quantitative tightening

The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. The central bank issues money. So the Fed prints dollars. An institution that can print money won't invest in bonds to make money. The Fed's purpose of buying or selling bonds is to control the amount of currency. The central bank can issue money, but you can't give it away to anyone. It's a crime if the central bank just prints the money and distributes it on the street. So when it increases the volume of money, it uses a specific method, which is bond buying. Mainly government bonds. The central bank buys bonds = The central bank gives money to the private sector and the bonds return to the central bank. The central bank is an independent agency. The government can use fiscal policy through tax returns and bond issuance, and it cannot intervene in central bank monetary policy. The government borrows money by selling treasury bonds to the central bank for fiscal policy. The central bank doesn't keep the ...

Big event to impact near future asset markets: Fed's balance sheet shrinkage

One of the Fed's QT measures, the reduction of the balance sheet, is one of the best events in the second half of 2022 along with the midterm elections. QT is expected to accelerate to $95 billion per month, and the Fed's QT size will double from September, so from September, it will fall below the monthly limit of QT and we see the T-bill repaid for the first time. Since the beginning of the 2020 rise was caused by 1) lowering the basemoney interest rate to zero interest rate (0.00-0.25%) after the COVID-19 pandemic, and 2) increasing the assets held by the purchase of government bonds and MBS to about $9 trillion (about 1.000 trillion won), providing huge liquidity to the market, f ed implements quantitative austerity (QT) to curb inflation triggered by rising markets! It has already started QT worth $47.5 billion (approximately $64.65 trillion) every month, including $30 billion in government bonds and $17.5 billion in MBS, but t he fed's announcement that it will double...